Club Queretaro vs Puebla Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Club Queretaro host Puebla at Estadio La Corregidora in Liga MX's Apertura - 16, with both teams arriving on uneven runs. Queretaro have lost four of their last five matches, while Puebla have gone three without a win and have drawn the other two.

The home side nevertheless has the stronger outlook in BetAttack's probabilities. Queretaro are given a 53.8% chance of winning, with the draw at 23.9% and Puebla at 22.3%. That makes the hosts clear favourites on paper, although their recent defensive record means this is not a straightforward fixture to trust.

Queretaro have the edge, driven mainly by the gap in the match winner probabilities and home advantage. Their expected goals figure is 1.601877, compared with 0.996798 for Puebla, giving a total expected-goals figure of 2.598675.

Those numbers point to a competitive game rather than a dominant home performance. Queretaro's recent form has been poor, and their defensive record is a concern, but Puebla's recent results have also offered little reason to make them the stronger side. The most defensible prediction is therefore a narrow statistical preference for Queretaro, without turning that lean into an exact scoreline.

Queretaro have taken three points from their last five matches, recording one win and four defeats. They have scored five goals and conceded 13 across that sequence, averaging 1 goal scored and 2.6 conceded per match.

The defensive problems have been consistent. Queretaro kept one clean sheet in those five games, while four matches went over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in three of the five fixtures, and Queretaro failed to score once.

Their underlying attacking numbers are modest. The side averages 2 shots and 0.2 shots on target per match across this five-match sample, alongside 0.1 expected goals. Their average possession is 43.8%, while opponents average 0.41 expected goals. The overall picture is of a team that has struggled to create regularly but has also been exposed at the other end.

Puebla's recent record is also difficult to recommend, with no wins, two draws and three losses from their last five matches. They have scored six goals and conceded 11, averaging 1.2 goals for and 2.2 against per match.

Both teams scored in four of those five fixtures, and three went over 2.5 goals. Puebla recorded one clean sheet and failed to score once. Their recent matches have therefore tended to produce goals, though their own attacking output has been inconsistent.

Some of Puebla's detailed figures come from smaller samples than Queretaro's. Across four matches with available data, Puebla average 1.25 shots, 0.5 shots on target, 41.75% possession and 0.16 expected goals. Their opponent expected-goals average is 0.25 across the same four-match sample. Corner figures are available for only two matches, so they offer limited support for a broader trend.

The recent goals records make this a meeting between two vulnerable defences. Queretaro have conceded 13 times in five matches, while Puebla have allowed 11. Queretaro's average of 2.6 goals conceded is higher than Puebla's 2.2, although the away side has still conceded in four of its last five fixtures.

Queretaro also have the stronger recent points return, with three points compared with Puebla's two, but neither team has established reliable momentum. The home side has scored 1 goal per match on average, while Puebla's supplied figure is 1.2. That small difference should not obscure the more important point: both attacks have produced limited shot and expected-goals numbers in the available samples.

BetAttack's match probabilities separate the teams more clearly than their recent form does. Queretaro's 53.8% win probability is 31.5 percentage points higher than Puebla's 22.3%, while the draw sits at 23.9%.

The goals markets are finely balanced. Under 2.5 goals has a 51.9% probability, only slightly ahead of over 2.5 at 48.1%. That modest lean towards a lower total sits alongside a combined expected-goals figure of 2.598675, so the projection does not point strongly in either direction.

Both teams to score is similarly close. BTTS Yes comes in at 50.4%, while BTTS No is at 49.6%. Recent form leans more heavily towards both teams finding the net, particularly for Puebla, whose last five matches produced BTTS in four cases. Queretaro's figure is three from five. Even so, the overall probabilities leave almost nothing between the two BTTS outcomes.

No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.

The closest statistical lean is towards a Queretaro win, but the 53.8% probability does not meet the required qualification threshold and the listed Bet365 odds of 1.8 do not create a qualifying selection. The under 2.5 goals line has a small probability advantage at 51.9%, with Bet365 offering 2.15, but it also falls short of the criteria despite showing positive expected value in the supplied market assessment.

BTTS is too finely balanced to support a strong conclusion. BTTS Yes is at 50.4% and BTTS No at 49.6%, while the available prices do not turn either outcome into a qualifying BetAttack bet. The same caution applies to the draw and Puebla win, both of which carry relatively low probabilities.

Queretaro deserve to be considered the likelier side, but their recent defensive record makes confidence difficult. Puebla have also struggled for results, and their 11 goals conceded in five matches leaves them vulnerable away from home.

The probabilities give Queretaro a meaningful edge in the match winner market, while the goals outlook remains almost evenly split. Under 2.5 goals has only a slight advantage, and BTTS is effectively level. With no market passing the BetAttack qualification rules, this is a fixture for cautious analysis rather than a recommended selection.