Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Fulham welcome Newcastle to Craven Cottage in the Premier League, with the home side holding a modest edge in BetAttack’s match probabilities. It is not a wide gap, though: Fulham are rated at 44.2% for a win, while Newcastle are on 32.8% and the draw is priced into the numbers at 23.0%.

The recent form picture gives Fulham the clearer platform. They have taken seven points from their last five matches, while Newcastle have collected three. That difference is tempered by Fulham’s modest attacking output across the same period and Newcastle’s potential to contribute in an open game, so this looks more competitive than the contrasting records might initially suggest.

Fulham have the edge, but it is a small one. Their expected goals figure is 1.625749, compared with 1.394872 for Newcastle, producing a total expected goals figure of 3.020621. Those numbers point towards a match in which both sides have opportunities rather than a one-sided contest.

BTTS Yes has the strongest of the main goals probabilities at 60.4%, while Over 2.5 Goals is at 58.1%. Neither outcome should be treated as a selection, but both figures support the view that the match could develop into an open encounter. The result probabilities remain sufficiently balanced to keep the draw firmly in consideration.

Fulham’s last five matches have produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with four goals scored and four conceded. Their average is 0.8 goals for and 0.8 against per match across that five-match sample.

Their recent results include a 1-1 draw away to Aston Villa, a 1-0 win at Coventry and a 1-0 home victory over Hull City. They also lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace in the League Cup and were beaten 2-1 by Ipswich. Fulham have kept two clean sheets in those five matches, while both teams have scored in two of them.

The underlying figures are restrained. Fulham’s average expected goals is 0.08 across five matches, with opponent expected goals at 0.05. Their average possession is 64.6%, although the possession figures have varied considerably from match to match. The home side has also recorded 0.75 corners for and 1 corner against per match, based on four matches with available data.

Newcastle come into the fixture with one win and four defeats from their last five matches. They have scored four goals and conceded nine in that run, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.8 against per game.

Their most recent outing ended in a 1-0 home defeat by Everton. Before that, Newcastle lost 3-1 to Everton in the League Cup, beat Crystal Palace 2-0 away, lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa and were beaten 4-1 by Coventry. They have kept one clean sheet in the five-match sequence and failed to score twice.

Newcastle’s expected goals average is 0.15, with opponent expected goals at 0.5, both across five matches. They have averaged 2.2 shots and 0.2 shots on target per game in that sample, while conceding an average of 3 shots. Their possession average is 53.4%, and their corner figures stand at 0.75 for and 0.5 against, based on four matches.

The main contrast is in recent defensive results. Fulham have conceded four goals in their last five matches, compared with nine for Newcastle, and Fulham’s two clean sheets are twice Newcastle’s total of one in the same sample.

Neither side has been consistently prolific. Both teams average 0.8 goals scored per match across their last five, although Newcastle’s 1.8 conceded per game is notably higher than Fulham’s 0.8. Newcastle have produced the higher average for shots, 2.2 to Fulham’s 0.75, but Fulham’s shots figure comes from four matches, while Newcastle’s is based on five. Fulham’s average shots on target is 0 across five matches, compared with 0.2 for Newcastle.

The possession numbers favour Fulham, who average 64.6% compared with Newcastle’s 53.4% over the respective five-match samples. That has not translated into a large recent scoring return, but it does form part of the reason Fulham receive the higher win probability.

BetAttack’s probabilities lean towards goals at Craven Cottage. BTTS Yes is rated at 60.4%, against 39.6% for BTTS No. Over 2.5 Goals stands at 58.1%, with Under 2.5 Goals at 41.9%.

The recent form records are less emphatic than those match probabilities. Both teams have scored in two of Fulham’s last five matches, and the same is true for Newcastle. Fulham have gone over 2.5 goals once in that sequence, while Newcastle have done so twice. Fulham’s recent matches have therefore generally been tight on the scoreboard, whereas Newcastle’s nine goals conceded have made their overall run more volatile.

The expected goals outlook is more positive than the raw scoring averages. The combined figure of 3.020621 points to a match with room for chances at both ends, although expected goals are not a predicted scoreline.

No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.

The strongest statistical lean is BTTS Yes at 60.4%, but the available William Hill odds of 1.55 do not meet the value threshold. Over 2.5 Goals has a 58.1% probability, yet the Bet365 odds of 1.67 also fall short on value. The match winner market is similarly difficult to support: Fulham are the most likely winner at 44.2%, but the Bet365 price of 2.05 does not provide sufficient value under the selection criteria.

Newcastle’s 32.8% win probability is higher than the draw probability of 23.0%, but neither outcome qualifies. A positive edge on the Newcastle price alone is not enough when the probability threshold is not met.

Fulham deserve to be considered slight favourites after taking seven points from their last five matches, while Newcastle have lost four of their last five. The home side also has the better recent defensive record, conceding four goals compared with Newcastle’s nine.

Still, the advantage is limited. Fulham’s recent attacking numbers are modest, Newcastle’s expected goals average is also low, and the probabilities leave plenty of room for either a draw or an away win. BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals are statistical leans, not qualifying bets. No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.