Leeds vs Tottenham Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Leeds welcome Tottenham to Elland Road in the Premier League on November 7. The probabilities make Leeds clear but not overwhelming favourites, with a 55.9% home win chance. Tottenham are given a 20.2% chance of taking all three points, while the draw stands at 24.0%.

The form lines point in opposite directions. Leeds have taken three points from their last five matches, whereas Tottenham have collected 10. Even so, the overall match assessment gives the home side a sizeable advantage, and the available betting value is also on Leeds in the match winner market.

Leeds have the edge in the main outcome market, although the 55.9% probability leaves room for a competitive contest. Their expected goals figure is 1.592, compared with 0.911 for Tottenham. Those figures point to greater attacking potential for the home team without providing a basis for an exact score prediction.

The draw probability is 24.0%, so Tottenham remain a meaningful threat despite being rated as the less likely winner. The expected total is 2.503 goals, while under 2.5 goals has a narrow advantage over the over line at 54.3% to 45.7%.

Leeds have won none of their last five, drawing three and losing two. They have scored two goals and conceded five across that run, averaging 0.4 goals for and 1.0 against per match. Their recent attacking output has been limited, with Leeds failing to score in three of those five fixtures.

The trend figures show both teams scored in 40% of Leeds' last five matches, while over 2.5 goals landed in 20%. Leeds kept two clean sheets, also 40%. Their average possession was 58.2% across the sample, although the available shot data shows only 3.6 shots and 0.6 shots on target per match.

Tottenham arrive in considerably better recent form. They have won three of their last five, drawn one and lost one, scoring 10 goals and conceding five. That works out at two goals scored and one conceded per match, and Tottenham have found the net in every match in the sample.

Both teams scored in 60% of Tottenham's last five games, while over 2.5 goals occurred in 40%. They also recorded two clean sheets. Tottenham averaged 69.4% possession, 6.0 shots per match across the four-match sample where that statistic was available, and 1.6 shots on target over five matches. Their recent expected goals average was 0.38 across five matches, with opponent expected goals at 0.24.

The central contrast is between Tottenham's stronger recent results and Leeds' favourable match probabilities. Leeds' recent record is 0-3-2, while Tottenham's is 3-1-1, but the fixture assessment still places Leeds at 55.9% for a home win.

Leeds have the higher expected goals projection for this match, at 1.592 to Tottenham's 0.911. Tottenham's recent possession average is also higher, 69.4% compared with Leeds' 58.2%, while the home side's recorded average of 3.6 shots is lower than Tottenham's 6.0 shots per match, noting that Tottenham's shot figure comes from four matches rather than five.

A high scoring game is not the strongest statistical angle. Under 2.5 goals has a 54.3% probability, compared with 45.7% for over 2.5. That is only a modest margin, and the expected total of 2.503 goals reflects the same lack of a dominant goals call.

The probabilities also lean slightly towards both teams not scoring. BTTS No stands at 52.4%, with BTTS Yes at 47.6%. Leeds' recent BTTS rate was 40%, while Tottenham's was 60%, so the recent form trends do not point in exactly the same direction.

The qualifying selection is Leeds to win with Bet365 at 2.7. BetAttack gives the home win a 55.9% probability, corresponding to fair odds of 1.7903, making the available price notably larger than the assessed fair price.

The goals markets do not qualify. Under 2.5 goals has the higher probability at 54.3%, but that is not sufficient for a BetAttack selection at the available Bet365 odds of 1.91. BTTS No is also marginally favoured at 52.4%, but it does not qualify either. Tottenham and the draw are rated below the home win in the match winner probabilities.

Leeds are the preferred outcome despite Tottenham bringing the better recent record into the fixture. The home side's match probability is strong enough to make the Bet365 price of 2.7 the standout qualifying option, while the goals and BTTS markets remain too finely balanced.

The expected goals figures favour Leeds, but they should be considered separately from the recent results and from any exact scoreline. No exact score prediction is supplied here. The BetAttack selection is Leeds in the match winner market.