Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Northern Ireland welcome Ukraine to Windsor Park in Belfast on 14 November, with the home side holding the clearer statistical advantage. The recent form records are notably different: Northern Ireland have taken eight points from their last five matches, while Ukraine have collected four.

That contrast is reflected in BetAttack's probabilities. Northern Ireland have a 51.4% chance of winning, with the draw at 29.6% and Ukraine at 19.0%. The stronger angle, however, comes in the goals markets. A low-scoring contest is favoured, with Under 2.5 Goals given a 70.6% probability.

Northern Ireland have the edge, although the prediction comes with the model's low confidence label and a low data quality grade. The home side's recent defensive record is the more convincing part of the comparison, and their expected goals figure of 1.220334 is higher than Ukraine's 0.671162.

The overall expected goals total is 1.891496. That is consistent with the probabilities pointing away from an open game, while the 65.5% figure for Both Teams To Score: No gives Northern Ireland a reasonable chance of keeping the match from becoming a two-sided scoring contest. There is no dedicated exact-score prediction in the supplied numbers, so the outlook is best expressed through the win, draw, goals and BTTS probabilities rather than a scoreline.

Northern Ireland's last five matches have produced two wins, two draws and one defeat, with five goals scored and three conceded. Their supplied averages are 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded per match across that five-match sample.

The defensive trend stands out. Northern Ireland have kept four clean sheets in those five games, while Both Teams To Score has landed in only one match. Over 2.5 goals has occurred twice, and the team have failed to score twice. That combination describes a side that has generally kept matches controlled, even if its own attacking output has not been especially high.

Their recent results include a 3-0 win over Ukraine, a 1-0 win over Georgia and goalless draws with Georgia and Hungary. The remaining result was a 3-1 defeat against France. Those results support the view that Northern Ireland have been difficult to break down, but they also show why a home win should not be treated as an automatic outcome.

Ukraine come into the match with one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five. They have scored three goals and conceded seven, averaging 0.6 goals for and 1.4 against over that sample.

Their recent record contains two clean sheets, but the broader picture is less stable than Northern Ireland's. Ukraine have scored in three of the five matches, while Both Teams To Score has occurred twice. Over 2.5 goals has landed in three games and they have failed to score twice.

Ukraine's possession average across the last five is 54%, compared with 29.8% for Northern Ireland. That higher possession figure has not translated into a stronger recent results record, though, and Ukraine's average of 2.2 shots per match is below Northern Ireland's 3.0. Northern Ireland also average fewer shots against, at 7.75 compared with Ukraine's 3.6, although those detailed shot figures are drawn from different samples: four matches for Northern Ireland and five for Ukraine.

The match winner probabilities favour Northern Ireland by a clear margin, but the home win still sits only just above 50%. That makes the result market less decisive than the goals outlook. The draw probability of 29.6% also keeps a stalemate firmly in the wider picture.

Northern Ireland's recent defensive numbers are stronger in the supplied five-match summaries. They have conceded 0.6 goals per match and kept four clean sheets, whereas Ukraine have conceded 1.4 per match and kept two clean sheets. Northern Ireland's 80% clean-sheet rate is twice Ukraine's 40% rate in the respective five-match samples.

There is little separating the teams in average shots on target for, with both listed at 0.8. Northern Ireland's average possession is lower, at 29.8%, while Ukraine's is 54%. The possession contrast therefore does not automatically point to Ukraine as the stronger side, particularly given the difference in recent results and goals conceded.

Under 2.5 Goals is the strongest probability in the match markets, at 70.6%, compared with 29.4% for Over 2.5. The expected goals figures point in the same direction without representing a predicted scoreline: Northern Ireland are at 1.220334 expected goals, Ukraine at 0.671162, for a combined total of 1.891496.

The recent form also supports caution around goals. Northern Ireland's five matches have produced two games over 2.5 goals, while Ukraine's have produced three. The BTTS split is 20% for Northern Ireland and 40% for Ukraine across their respective five-match samples. BetAttack gives Both Teams To Score: No a 65.5% probability, against 34.5% for Yes.

The clean-sheet figures are particularly relevant. Northern Ireland have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five, and Ukraine have failed to score twice in that run. Ukraine's own recent scoring record is modest, with three goals across five matches, so the case for at least one team failing to score is stronger than the case for a wide-open contest.

Two markets qualify as BetAttack selections. Both Teams To Score: No is available at 1.73 with William Hill, compared with a 65.5% probability in the numbers. The supplied fair odds are 1.5258, so the selection has a positive expected value of 0.133842.

Under 2.5 Goals qualifies at 1.49 with BetVictor. Its probability is 70.6%, with supplied fair odds of 1.4164 and expected value of 0.051964. The goals market fits both the expected goals total of 1.891496 and the recent defensive patterns, although the low confidence label and low data quality grade should be kept in mind.

Northern Ireland's match winner price also carries positive expected value in the supplied market data, but it does not qualify because its probability is below the relevant threshold. The qualifying selections are therefore limited to Both Teams To Score: No and Under 2.5 Goals.

Northern Ireland are the more appealing side on the underlying numbers, particularly because of their recent defensive record and Ukraine's weaker five-match results return. The home win probability is 51.4%, but the more reliable direction in this preview is towards a tight game with limited scoring.

Both Teams To Score: No at 1.73 with William Hill and Under 2.5 Goals at 1.49 with BetVictor are the two qualifying BetAttack selections. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and the low confidence label means the probabilities should be treated with appropriate caution.