Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Sevilla welcome Alaves in La Liga with the home side holding the clearer statistical edge, although the gap is not large enough to make the match winner market especially compelling. Sevilla's recent record is balanced at two wins, one draw and two defeats, while Alaves have taken two points from their last five matches after two draws and three losses.

The strongest angle comes in the goals markets. Both Teams To Score is the only BetAttack selection that qualifies, with Bet365 offering 1.95 on Yes. Sevilla's recent matches have produced goals at both ends regularly, and Alaves have conceded in four of their last five outings.

BetAttack gives Sevilla a 44.9% chance of winning, placing them ahead of Alaves at 31.4%, with the draw at 23.7%. That makes the home side the likelier winner, but the probabilities still leave plenty of room for an away result or a share of the points.

The expected-goals figures are 1.564 for Sevilla and 1.300 for Alaves, giving a combined expectation of 2.864. Those numbers point to a competitive game with a reasonable chance of goals without providing a basis for an exact score prediction.

The clearest statistical lean is towards both teams scoring. BetAttack rates that outcome at 57.5%, while Over 2.5 Goals is slightly less strongly supported at 54.6%.

Sevilla's five-match record contains seven points, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their supplied averages are therefore 2.0 goals for and 2.0 against per match across that five-game sample.

Their recent results have been mixed. They beat Hortaleza 3-0 in the Copa del Rey and Osasuna 2-0 in La Liga, but those victories sit alongside a 3-1 defeat to Getafe and a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid. The other result was a 3-3 draw with Levante.

Both Teams To Score landed in three of Sevilla's five recent matches, while Over 2.5 Goals occurred four times. Sevilla scored in all five, and they kept two clean sheets. The more detailed numbers are drawn from smaller samples: their expected-goals average is 0.3 across three matches, while opponent expected goals average 0.12 across the same three-match sample. Shots for average 1.67 and shots on target for average 0.67, each across three matches.

Alaves arrive in weaker recent form, with no wins in their last five matches. They have drawn twice and lost three times, scoring four goals and conceding 11. That equates to supplied averages of 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match across five games.

Their latest fixture ended in a 6-1 defeat away to Barcelona. Before that, Alaves drew 1-1 with Malaga, lost 2-1 to Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid, and drew 0-0 with Athletic Club. Both Teams To Score featured in four of those five matches, while Over 2.5 Goals landed in three.

Alaves have kept one clean sheet and failed to score once in that sequence. Their expected-goals average is 0.05 across four matches, with opponent expected goals at 0.41 across four. Those figures come from a smaller sample than the five-match goal totals and should be read separately.

The recent form comparison favours Sevilla in results and attacking output. Sevilla's seven points from five matches contrast with Alaves' two, and the home side have scored 10 times compared with four for the visitors. Alaves, however, have conceded 11 goals in that period, one more than Sevilla despite playing the same number of matches.

The broader BetAttack probabilities also make Sevilla the more likely winner, but their 44.9% home-win figure is below 50%. Alaves' 31.4% away-win probability is substantial enough to keep the match winner market open, while the draw accounts for 23.7%.

There is also a clear contrast in the recent clean-sheet figures. Sevilla recorded two clean sheets in five matches, whereas Alaves managed one. At the other end, Sevilla did not fail to score in any of their five recent matches, while Alaves failed to score once.

Both Teams To Score has a strong foundation in the recent results. It appeared in three of Sevilla's five matches and four of Alaves' five, although those samples include different competitions for Sevilla and only La Liga matches for Alaves in the supplied sequence.

BetAttack puts Yes at 57.5%, compared with 42.5% for No. Bet365's odds of 1.95 are above the listed fair odds of 1.7386, and this is the only market that meets the qualification rules.

Over 2.5 Goals also has a narrow probability advantage at 54.6%, with Under 2.5 at 45.4%. However, Over 2.5 Goals does not qualify as a BetAttack selection. The recent form trend is more supportive, with four of Sevilla's five matches and three of Alaves' five going over the line, but the market still falls short of the required qualification threshold.

The qualifying selection is Both Teams To Score, Yes, at Bet365's 1.95. The 57.5% BetAttack probability is supported by the two teams' recent BTTS records and by the expected-goals totals of 2.864 for the fixture.

The home win is the most likely individual result, but its 44.9% probability does not qualify at the available William Hill odds of 1.95. Alaves have a 31.4% win probability, while the draw is rated at 23.7%, so neither outcome provides a qualifying match winner selection.

Over 2.5 Goals has a 54.6% probability and Bet365 odds of 2.2, but it also does not qualify. The betting case is therefore narrower than simply expecting an open game: the supported selection is specifically that both teams score.

Sevilla deserve favouritism after taking seven points from their last five matches, compared with two for Alaves, and the probability split gives the home side a 44.9% chance of victory. Still, the margin is not decisive, and the expected-goals figures point to a contest in which Alaves have a meaningful scoring chance.

The better supported route is Both Teams To Score. Sevilla have scored in all five of their recent matches, while Alaves have scored in four, and BTTS is rated at 57.5% by BetAttack. At 1.95 with Bet365, Both Teams To Score, Yes is the only qualifying selection for this fixture.