Trival Valderas vs Leganes Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Trival Valderas host Leganes at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. The fixture brings together two teams arriving with very different recent records, though neither has won in its last five matches. Trival Valderas have drawn four and lost one of those games, while Leganes have drawn once and lost four.

BetAttack gives the home side a clear statistical edge, with a 58.7% probability of victory. The draw is rated at 20.1%, while Leganes are given a 21.2% chance of winning. That makes Trival Valderas the more likely outcome, but the low confidence attached to the underlying data is important context.

Trival Valderas have the better recent record and the stronger numbers for this tie. Their last five matches have produced four draws, one defeat, seven goals scored and eight conceded. Leganes, by contrast, have scored five and conceded 12 across their last five, with four defeats in that sequence.

The probabilities favour Trival Valderas rather than presenting a closely balanced three way contest. The home win sits at 58.7%, 37.5 percentage points above the away win probability of 21.2%. A draw at 20.1% remains a realistic alternative, especially given Trival Valderas' run of four draws in five matches.

BetAttack's expected goals figures are 2.00153 for Trival Valderas and 1.201377 for Leganes, for a combined expected total of 3.202907. These are attacking expectation figures, not an exact score prediction.

Trival Valderas have been difficult to beat recently, although their inability to turn draws into wins is clear. They have taken four points from their last five matches, recording four draws and one defeat. Their goals record in that run is seven for and eight against, equivalent to supplied averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match across five games.

Both teams scored in four of those five matches, a rate of 80%, and three went over 2.5 goals, representing 60% of the sample. Trival Valderas have kept no clean sheets in that sequence, while they failed to score once. The pattern is one of regular attacking contribution without much defensive control: they have scored in four of five but have also conceded in all five.

Their latest result was a 1-1 draw away to RC Alcobendas. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Galapagar, Leganes II and Cala Pozuelo. The only defeat in the sequence came against Rayo Vallecano II, when they lost 1-0.

Leganes come into the cup tie after a much more difficult five match spell. They have one draw and four defeats, scoring five goals and conceding 12. Their supplied averages are 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded per match across those five games.

Their most recent match ended in a 3-1 home defeat to Albacete. That followed a 4-3 loss away to Valladolid and a 1-1 draw with Mallorca. Leganes then lost 1-0 to Cordoba and 3-0 away to Almeria.

Both teams scored in three of the five matches, or 60%, while three also went over 2.5 goals. Leganes have recorded no clean sheets during the run and failed to score twice. Their recent results therefore combine defensive vulnerability with a less consistent attack than Trival Valderas' recent output.

The available detailed figures cover only selected samples. Leganes average 1.6 shots per match and 0.4 shots on target across five matches, with average possession of 49% over the same sample. Their expected goals average is 0.18 across four matches, while opponent expected goals average 0.21 across four. Those four match samples should not be treated as five match averages.

The recent form comparison points towards Trival Valderas. The home side have lost once in five, compared with four Leganes defeats, and they have scored seven goals against Leganes' five. Trival Valderas also concede fewer goals on average, 1.6 per match compared with 2.4 for Leganes, with both figures based on five matches.

There is a defensive concern on both sides. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in its respective five match sample. Trival Valderas have conceded in all five of their recent games, while Leganes have also conceded in all five. That helps explain why the goals markets produce a more open outlook than the match winner probabilities alone might imply.

The quality of the available statistical coverage is limited. Trival Valderas have no detailed averages recorded for corners, shots, possession or expected goals. Leganes have some detailed figures, but the expected goals data covers four matches and several other categories have samples of four or five. BetAttack consequently labels the prediction confidence as low.

BetAttack gives both teams scoring a 60.5% probability, compared with 39.5% for both teams not to score. That attacking lean is supported by Trival Valderas' 80% BTTS rate across their last five matches, although Leganes' corresponding rate is lower at 60% over five.

Over 2.5 goals is given a 62.1% probability, while under 2.5 stands at 37.9%. Both teams have recorded over 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches, a 60% rate in each case. Trival Valderas' recent games have produced four 2-2 draws among their last five results, alongside the 1-0 defeat to Rayo Vallecano II. Leganes have also been involved in high scoring matches recently, including the 3-4 defeat at Valladolid and the 1-3 loss to Albacete.

The goals outlook is therefore more positive than either team's results might suggest. Still, the relevant market qualification rules do not support turning those probabilities into a BetAttack selection.

No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.

The probabilities offer a clear statistical lean towards Trival Valderas, and they also point towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. However, all seven analysed markets are marked as non qualifying because of insufficient statistical sample. That applies even where a market shows a positive edge or expected value, so those figures should not be presented as formal recommendations.

The match winner market is particularly notable because the home win probability is 58.7%, while the draw and away win probabilities are 20.1% and 21.2%. The goals markets are also relatively open, with over 2.5 goals at 62.1% and BTTS Yes at 60.5%. Even so, the low confidence label and limited supporting data mean the responsible conclusion is to leave the betting markets alone.

Trival Valderas deserve favouritism on the supplied numbers. Their recent run contains four draws and only one defeat, while Leganes have lost four of five and conceded 12 goals. The home side also have the higher expected goals figure, 2.00153 compared with 1.201377 for Leganes.

The main counterpoint is that Trival Valderas have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, and both teams have shown a tendency towards open matches. BTTS Yes and over 2.5 goals are statistical leans, but not selections. No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.